Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 26.092081 28.864914 32.019520 35.923888 40.699307 46.452260 54.075546
2025-02-16 22.308383 25.884135 30.316079 36.393583 44.836221 56.738690 76.126071
2025-02-23 19.510904 23.380072 28.471442 36.009616 47.624691 66.513126 104.823638
2025-03-02 17.673194 21.717996 27.301649 36.121374 51.049120 79.067119 152.911940
2025-03-09 16.179901 20.261159 26.104923 35.823962 53.636920 91.869023 227.841632
2025-03-16 14.973170 19.030177 25.011484 35.392963 55.788665 105.561278 360.268705
2025-03-23 13.998816 18.012622 24.077739 35.001635 57.861880 121.250531 652.095882
2025-03-30 13.214740 17.189519 23.328878 34.767143 60.191847 140.784346 1682.278489
2025-04-06 12.427935 16.287855 22.341670 33.895604 60.747454 155.539266 8164.373086
2025-04-13 12.185191 16.195494 22.669663 35.617064 68.561905 217.637562 NaN
2025-04-20 11.640389 15.580226 22.034132 35.257234 70.604506 257.591552 NaN
2025-04-27 11.238578 15.161736 21.695726 35.463282 74.514805 330.517806 NaN
2025-05-04 10.886670 14.805246 21.443287 35.845661 79.430864 457.356334 NaN
2025-05-11 10.529769 14.416258 21.094790 35.954385 83.615499 647.549802 NaN
2025-05-18 10.125891 13.923981 20.512035 35.417711 85.179188 851.640358 NaN
2025-05-25 9.823260 13.583641 20.185497 35.452621 89.252599 1404.401397 NaN
2025-06-01 9.505497 13.199309 19.743362 35.130974 91.716708 2413.256841 NaN
2025-06-08 9.200449 12.820726 19.283816 34.698781 93.548624 4955.834645 NaN
2025-06-15 8.922604 12.475274 18.864289 34.313415 95.526192 21058.683406 NaN
2025-06-22 8.679807 12.178898 18.520709 34.083505 98.327279 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 8.392943 11.793300 17.975659 33.238942 97.334228 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 8.359721 11.849814 18.319404 34.903174 112.765832 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 8.146608 11.577393 17.973506 34.555020 115.208380 NaN NaN